BasGoed Chain Choice Model

In coöperation with Significance and TNO, Demis developed a new module for multimodal transport chains for container transport for the strategic freight transport model Basgoed. The project is issued by Rijkswaterstaat WVL. The existing BasGoed model simulates the separate transport legs in multimodal transport chains individually. In reality a significant volume of container transport is part of multimodal transport chains, in particular port-related transport chains. Decision making takes place at the level of transport chains between the location of production and consumption. Therefore, a corridor choice model for container transport is specified that addresses multimodal transport chains and enables an analysis of the impacts of new multimodal terminals.

In the project, first a dataset was created with container flows between the locations of production and consumption. Main assumption behind the data processing is that each container transport by rail or barge requires a road leg at the side of destination and/or origin, to complete the multimodal transport chain. For all seaports in the study area the assumption was made that the barge or rail leg has direct access at the port side of the multimodal transport chain. This dataset was used as synthetic ‘observations’ to estimate discrete choice models for multimodal transport chains.

The choice model distinguishes direct road transport, multimodal transport chains either with barge or rail as main mode. For each observed uni- or multimodal container transport a choice set is generated with a route enumeration module that was developed for this project. This module generates a stratified choice set comprising of a distinct number of alternatives of each chain type. The estimated model is implemented in the corridor choice model, and time- and cost elasticities are tested. The corridor choice model will be integrated in the Basgoed modelling system.

More information on BasGoed can be found here.